Views: 3 Author: Site Editor Publish Time: 2023-05-12 Origin: Site
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO)published data,The world food price index rose in April for the first time in a year and was about 20 percent above the record set after Russia invaded Ukraine.
worldThe Food Price Index is a measure of monthly changes in the international prices of a basket of food commodities.
Previously,粮agricultural organizationlast month(April7th）Release report shows，becauseWorld cereal and vegetable oil quotations continued to decline, drivingBenchmark international food commodity prices fall for 12th straight month in March，month-on-month decline2.1%, 20.5% lower than the peak in March last year.
According to the latest report released by FAO this month (May 5),The international food price index rebounded for the first time in 12 months in April，World quotations for sugar, meat and rice rose.FAO Chief Economist Maximo Torero said:along withDemand will pick up as the economy recovers from a severe slowdown, giving food prices a boost。
The report shows,April 2023,粮The FAO Food Price Index averaged127.2 points, up 0.6% month-on-month.The food price index fell 19.7 percent this month compared to April 2022, but remained 5.2 percent above its April 2021 level.
in,The meat price index rose by 1.3% month-on-month in April，Mainly supported by pork quotations, followed by poultry prices.Quotes for both pork and poultry meat have risen this month amid rising import demand in Asia and production constraints due to animal and veterinary health concerns.Influenced by the decline in beef cattle slaughter (especially in the United States), international beef prices also rose this month.
Meat Price Index：According toFour types of meat (beef、pork,禽meat and lamb) is calculated from the 35 average export unit value market prices. Within each meat, the export unit value price is weighted by the trade share of the respective market, and these four meats are all used in 2014-The 2016 world export trade average is weighted, and quotations for the last two months may include estimates and may therefore need to be revised.
nearly twosince the month,The topic of 'Zibo barbecue' continues to be hot, and the popularity of restaurants in various places has largely driven meat consumption.
According to the latest monitoring of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, from April 24 to April 30, 2023,The average purchase price of live pigs in fixed-point slaughtering enterprises above designated size was 15.57 yuan/kg, up 1.4% from the previous week and 0.8% from the same period last year; the average ex-factory price of white striped meat was 20.48 yuan/kg, up 1.3% from the previous week It was up 0.2% a year earlier.
Global food crisis intensifies
The issue of food security is not only related to rations, but also to the development of the world economy and the stability of countries in the region. It is a fundamental issue related to human survival.EnterSince the 21st century, mankind has experienced many worldwide food crises。this timeThe food price index rebounded for the first time in a year, which deserves high vigilance.
According to the 2023 Global Food Crisis Report (GRFC) released on the FAO website on May 3, relevant data in 2022 show that,The global food crisis situation and acute food insecurity are further exacerbated by factors such as economic shocks, conflict and insecurity, climate change and extreme weather events.
The impact of the new crown epidemic and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine have made the83.9 million people in 27 countries are food insecure or more food insecure, compared to 30.2 million people in 21 countries in 2021.
conflict and insecurity inIn 2022, 117 million people in 19 countries and regions will be in severe food crisis or worse level of food insecurity, and the relevant data in 2021 will be 139 million people in 24 countries and regions.
Climate change and extreme weather events are causing severe food insecurity in parts of Africa and South Asia.In 2022, climate change and extreme weather events will cause 56.8 million people in 12 countries to be severely food insecure, more than double the number of people (23.5 million) in 8 countries in 2021.
According to the report, about 258 million people in 58 countries and regions will be affected by severe food crises in 2022, which is higher than the 193 million people in 53 countries and regions in 2021.The number of people globally experiencing severe food insecurity and requiring emergency food, nutrition and livelihood assistance increases for the fourth consecutive year in 2022, with more than 250 million people facing acute hunger and populations in seven countries on the verge of starvation.This is the highest number in the seven years since the report was published.Global food insecurity severity rises from 21.3% in 2021 to 22.7% in 2022,global food crisisUnsafeThe machine is deteriorating。
China's food security status is stable
从Overall, my country's grain production and demand have been more than balanced in recent years.But whenprevious experienceUnder the background of the spread of the global epidemic and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, my country's foodin the endWhether there is enough to eat or not has become a concern of the public.China's national conditions and development stage determine that ensuring national food security must take into account the two principles of domestic and appropriate imports. China's food imports are in an overall growth stage.
Released by the General Administration of Customs的Data Display,2021,our countryfood production和Import volume均record high.Chinaimported food16454million tons, year-on-year growth18.1%, equivalent to 24% of my country's total grain output.In 2022, due to factors such as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and repeated epidemics, the prices of grain crops such as wheat fluctuated greatly, coupled with the increase in import costs, China will import 146.87 million tons of grain, a year-on-year decrease of 10.7%.
In 2022, Li Guoxiang, director of the Rural Development Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said in an interview with China Economic Weekly: 'In recent years, the amount of imported soybeans has exceeded 80% of domestic consumption, and the dependence on foreign countries is very high. Grain imports grew rapidly.In recent years, China's overall food dependence on foreign countries has reached nearly 20%.'With the continuous improvement of the food consumption level of residents, in addition to the continuous expansion of food imports, the scale of other types of food imports has also continued to expand.In recent years, China's dependence on imported meat has been about 10%，The annual import volume has beenNearly 10 million tons.
It is worth mentioning that soybeans are the raw materials for the production of soybean oil and soybean meal, soybean oil is used as edible oil, and soybean meal is the main source of protein in animal feed.Volatility in the food sector makesanimalThe cost of farming is rising.As a result, food crises tend to exacerbate increases in meat prices.
Regarding my country's grain self-sufficiency rate, the data of different statistical calibers are also different.A set of data provided by Li Guoxiang to the reporter of 'China Economic Weekly' shows that: at present, the self-sufficiency rate of rations in my country exceeds100%, the grain self-sufficiency rate is over 90%, the grain self-sufficiency rate is over 85%, and the overall self-sufficiency rate is over 75%.
在2022At the CMF Symposium on Macroeconomic Hotspot Issues held on April 27, Cheng Guoqiang, a professor at the School of Agriculture and Rural Development of Renmin University of China, introduced that at present, China has a relatively high level of security for the three major staple foods of rice, corn, and wheat, as well as the main meat. The self-sufficiency rates of edible vegetable oil and soybean are relatively low, 1/3 and less than 17% respectively.In the agricultural supply system,The self-sufficiency rate of protein feed raw material supply is less than 20%, and the short board is the most prominent.In 2000, China's food self-sufficiency rate was 93.6%, which will drop to 65.8% in 2020.
June 2022,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences and International Food Policy Research Institute (The 'China Agricultural Industry Development Report 2022' jointly released by IFPRI) in Beijing shows that since 2010, the average self-sufficiency rates of rice, wheat, corn and soybeans in China have been 99.3%, 98.4%, 97.4% and 16.7%, respectively.
There are two commonly used grain self-sufficiency rates in my country, one is the grain self-sufficiency rate; the other is the ration self-sufficiency rate (referring to the proportion of rice, wheat, potatoes, etc. ration production and consumption).Regardless of the statistical caliber, according to the information disclosed by the above-mentioned experts, my country's'Grain self-sufficiency rate' and 'Ration self-sufficiency rate' are above 80%.
Grain self-sufficiency rate and ration self-sufficiency rate inMore than 80%, to a certain extent, conceals the deep-seated contradictions of food security.In recent years, the growth rate of my country's grain imports is 7.9 times the growth rate of grain production.
above,是in recent yearsThe general state of my country's food security.from now onIn terms of the domestic food situation,food crisisInfluenceestimatestill within controllable range.In the next international community, China will continue to reduce the impact of the food crisis on our country and strive to restore food parity.
food crisisbackgroundopportunity for meat
along withResidents of our countryincome的Increase,对starch staple food的Consumption在gradually decrease, but theother including meatnutritiousfoodConsumption will increase substantially.Cheng Guoqiang, a professor at the School of Agriculture and Rural Development, Renmin University of China2022Introduced at the CMF Symposium on Macroeconomic Hot Issues held on April 27：In the past three decades, China's per capita wheat consumption has declined18%, rice decreased by 11.86%, vegetable oil and meat are both increasing.
Among them, vegetable oil consumption increased by 405.8%. Now China's per capita vegetable oil consumption has reached 26 kg, which has reached the upper limit according to the characteristics of East Asian diets and has begun to enter a steady state.There is still room for growth in meat. China’s per capita consumption of major meat such as cattle, sheep, pigs and poultry is 47 kg (the full-caliber has reached 62 kg), with an average annual growth rate of 2.94% in the past 30 years. The direction and trend of consumption structure changes are in line with the Nieter's law.Cheng Guoqiang predicts thatConsumption of animal-based foods, including meat, will continue to grow.
With the recovery of the economy, the consumption demand for imported meat is expected to continue to pick up.However, the global food crisis will push up the price of meat imports, and the meat import market will also face new opportunities and challenges under the background of the food crisis.
The majority of meat importers should seize the great opportunity of the country to further expand the import channels of meat and other food, better meet the diversified, multi-level, and high-growth food consumption needs of Chinese residents, and build a pattern of diversified imports and high-quality development Contribute.
Some content sources: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, General Administration of Customs, Economic Daily,China Economic Weekly、Sohu.com, new agricultural concept
Source: Youdingte Research Institute｜If there is any infringement, please contact to delete
